Chinese Blister Copper RCs Rose Above 1,000 Yuan/mt, Market Supply Faces New Variables in April [SMM Analysis]

SMM April 1 news:

In March 2025, SMM reported blister copper RCs in south China at 750-1,050 yuan/mt, averaging 900 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM. In north China, blister copper RCs were quoted at 700-900 yuan/mt, averaging 800 yuan/mt, flat MoM. CIF import blister copper RCs were quoted at $90-95/mt, averaging $92.5/mt, flat MoM.

In March, the Chinese blister copper market reversed, with RCs rebounding after a decline. In late February, copper prices fluctuated rangebound, leading suppliers of secondary copper raw material to hold back cargoes, reducing domestic copper scrap raw material supply. Meanwhile, due to a severe SHFE/LME price ratio inversion and some traders suspending imports from the US around Trump's inauguration, copper scrap imports also dropped significantly. These two factors jointly led to an expected decline in domestic supply of copper anode made from scrap, dragging down domestic RCs.
However, with copper prices rising continuously in mid-March, domestic supply of secondary copper raw material increased. At the same time, high copper prices suppressed downstream consumption, and secondary copper rod prices performed poorly, prompting many companies to shift capacity to anode plates. After market supply increased, spot blister copper RCs climbed above 1,000 yuan/mt. On the import side, due to the persistent SHFE/LME price ratio inversion and rising domestic RCs, smelters showed little interest in imported sources, resulting in low market activity.
SMM's weekly blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 1,000-1,200 yuan/mt, averaging 1,100 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt WoW. Weekly blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 700-1,100 yuan/mt, averaging 900 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW. Weekly CIF import blister copper RCs were quoted at $90-100/mt, averaging $95/mt, up $2.5/mt WoW. Domestic anode plate RCs were quoted at 800-900 yuan/mt, averaging 850 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW.

In April, because of increased market supply in late March, the center of domestic blister copper RCs rose above 1,000 yuan/mt. However, at the beginning of the month, copper prices pulled back below 80,000 yuan/mt, weakening suppliers' willingness to sell secondary copper, and secondary copper rod prices rebounded. Additionally, as a large amount of copper scrap inventories were sold off in mid-to-late March and imported sources may face a shortage, if copper prices do not continue to rise, market supply is expected to tighten again.